20/04/2026
Hi everyone, Well it looks rather inevitable now that a strong El Nino looks set to rapidly develop for the second half of 2026. At the same time, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could also form enhancing the impacts. Both of these climate drivers have a significant, proven, historical influence over Australia's weather patterns. Together at these particular values they will often lead to prolonged periods of very dry, much hotter conditions across large parts of Australia.
Yes this is absolutely 100% a normal cycle that occurs, however it is our role and responsibility as a weather service to ensure we provide latest information... Since 2020, 4 out of the past 5 years have been a La Nina which provided widespread rainfall and flooding to many areas. We were starting to get really overdue for El Nino to come back...
But what makes this forecast outlook much more concerning???
Put simply, the pre-existing rapid onset of very dry to drought conditions already occurring across Southern QLD and much of NSW. Plus the general long term rainfall deficits across Victoria, South Australia and other parts of the country.
For most of QLD & NSW, minimal below average rainfall is forecast for the rest of Autumn and during Winter. Even if these areas get some rainfall it is highly unlikely to be enough to cause run off into dams, creeks and rivers. Also any fodder really struggles to grow in the cold conditions with frosts. The only substantial rainfall could come from East Coast Lows that form from May - August. An important note though is that this rain would be limited to coastal areas of NSW & Eastern Victoria if it does happen.
South West WA, Southern SA, Southern Victoria and Tasmania should see "some" rain during the cooler months ahead from cold fronts and lows, but even it is forecast to be below average.
If the El Nino forms is as strong as forecast and the positive IOD also kicks in, we could be looking at continued very dry conditions into Spring and Summer for many areas. Another increased risk that comes with it is a higher number of bushfires.
It is very important that farmers and graziers now take into consideration the longer term weather outlooks.
I am very sorry to those who are already struggling, I really wish I could provide some more positive news.
We will constantly look ahead for any rain on the horizon but will ONLY carefully mention it if things are very confident. The last thing we want to do is give false hope in a desperate situation, only to see it get crushed.
There will be more forecast information to follow as we continually analyse the latest real-time and forecast data.
~ Jeff Higgins ~
