26/02/2026
Many Keyboard Traders have watched the market drop nearly 60c in the last month and are wondering why their coffee isn’t instantly cheaper. The reasons are many…and nuanced from country to country.
ETHIOPIA: First, the Ethiopian government sets minimum pricing for all exports. Though the possibility remains that the government could bring down pricing, that has NOT happened. Second, record cherry prices have made it so coffee is MUCH more expensive than last year. In effect, the prices paid in Ethiopia have only a tenuous connection to the daily prices in New York.
INDIA: To date, the internal market remains strong and, in particular, for specialty coffee. While that may shift before shipping season, we all must brace for high prices if representing Indian specialty coffee is a priority.
BRAZIL: With the market taking such a dive and so quickly, many producers who have been holding stocks (for tax reasons OR because they are not desperate for cash) are not simply unwilling to sell for less than what they would have sold for a month or two ago. Differentials (to FOB) for many 83-85 point coffees have gone from +50 to +100. In effect, this just cancels out the movement of the market.
MEXICO: The coyotes continue to pay the same prices they paid when the market was much higher. That may change….but it may not. Moreover, even if prices were lower, the MXN is much stronger against the USD compared to this time last year. Net/net, even if the coyote prices drop, FOB prices will likely remain unchanged or even surge.
COLOMBIA: We are still wrapping up purchasing/sales from the 2025/26 harvest so there is still plenty of inventory that was purchased at much higher prices. We don’t take it as a point of pride that prices will come down soon and that we are following the market but given the volatility, we truly have no option in order to stay in business. In short, no one wants to pay $5-6 for 84/85 point coffees. Maybe that will change one day…
Finally, while the market may continue to drop, we all must be prepared for a further decoupling of the commodity and specialty markets. In fact, we probably should welcome this change…even encourage it.