22/09/2026
Last week we started working on our detailed, week-by-week Christmas forecast, taking us from now right up to Christmas Day. This models likely milk volumes available from the herd, and expected cheese demand, so we can work out which cheeses to make when and whether (or usually when!) we are likely to run into shortages.
It is such a crucial - and slightly insane - time of year in the artisan cheese world and it usually feels like we could sell an almost unlimited amount of cheese in the last week of November and first two weeks of December, if we had the capacity.
However the reality is that we are not a huge cheese factory: the milk we get from our herd is what we have to make cheese with, and there is no magic handle we can turn to make more milk and cheese appear overnight when we want it. Detailed forecasting helps greatly though, as it allows us - starting from right now - to build up enough stock of each cheese in roughly the right proportions as orders ramp up over the coming months.
It is far from an exact science though - we are dealing with animals in the natural world, as well as various human and equipment based factors, as well as the unknowns of what customers will actually do.
Recent November/ Decembers have seen things like an unexpected cold snap hitting milk volumes, a storm cutting our electricity for 24 hours, and a full-time cheesemaker breaking their wrist.
We always try to do our best to meet demand though and that’s why it’s at this time of year that we ask stockists to give us their best guesses of what cheese they are likely to need in the pre-Christmas period. We know things can change and that no one has a crystal ball, but even a ‘best guess’ is helpful as a starting point. This year our earliest Christmas forecast came in July, and I hear most of the Christmas cheeseboard photoshoots you see in the magazines are done in August.
Anyway, I haven’t bought a single Christmas present or thought about any other aspect of Christmas even slightly, but here’s to Christmas cheese planning!