05/09/2025
Elahidoost Saffron
Possible Scenarios
"Saffron New Crop Market 2025-2026"
๐ Current Trends in the Saffron Market
Physical Market
1)Demand shows a direct correlation with currency exchange rates.
2)Prices in the physical market increased by 7% compared to two weeks ago.
Iran Stock Market (ISM)
1)Saffron certificate prices rose to 95$/kg .
2)About 1 ton of saffron was withdrawn from ISM warehouses in the past two weeks.
๐ Key Factors Influencing the Saffron Market (Summer 2025)
1)Domestic demand of 10โ12 tons before the new harvest arrives.
2)Ability of farmers and ISM warehouses to supply this demand.
3)Production outlook for the new crop affected by drought, new pests, and higher input costs.
4)Inflation expectations among suppliers.
5)Current ISM warehouse stock: 7 tons.
6)Short-term outlook: upward price trend, but long-term subject to bearish pressures.
7)Increase in Iranโs official export base price set by customs, impacting global competitiveness.
8)Strengthening global demand and expansion of export destinations.
9)Rial Currency Drop .
๐ฎ Market Outlook for the New Saffron Crop (2025-2026)
Based on expert opinions and AI-based forecasting models, four main scenarios can be anticipated:
1) Golden Boom
Production: Normal
Domestic & global demand: Rising๐บ
Rial Currency: Drop๐ป
ISM liquidity: Strong
Outcome: ๐บ Local Price growth of 15โ25% vs. 12M average
2) Fragile Balance
Production: Normal
Domestic demand: Moderate
Global demand: Stable
Rial Currency: Stable
ISM: Balanced
Outcome: ๐บ Local Price growth of 5โ10%
3) Supply Pressure
Production: High yield
Domestic demand: Declining
Global demand: Limited
Currency: Stable or falling
ISM liquidity: Weak
Outcome: ๐ป Local Price drop of 10โ20%
4) Volatile Path
Production: Normal
Domestic demand: Fluctuating
Global demand: Volatile
Currency: Unstable
ISM: High-risk divergence
Outcome: ๐บ Local price growth of up to 30% or ๐ป decline of 20% in short-term
โฆ Elahidoost Saffron continues to monitor these dynamics closely, providing real-time market intelligence for global partners.
King Regards
Hamed Elahidoost
Sales Manager
๐ง [email protected]
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