15/02/2026
The world market price of cocoa is down to below 3700 USD per ton (!)
We are talking about the (industrial) commodity cocoa, not fine flavour cocoa.
But isn't there a cocoa crisis? Like more demand than supply on a global scale? 🧐
Climate related issues, lower harvests, combined with speculation, and in 2024 - 2025, the prices went up to record heights of 10000 USD (!!!) and more per ton and remained so for quite some time.
The problems in West Africa aren't solved, so why the continuing price decrease over the last six months?
On a superficial level, the reason is low buying interest.
The arguments are that stocks are still there, that companies have reformulated the recipes to use less cocoa and/or switched to cocoa alternatives, shrinkflation, etc.
BUT isn't it actually a perfect example of how the big industry and traders are manipulating the market?
Let's force the price to drop by....well, not buying!
High demand > high price
Low demand > low price
Those who suffer the consequences of such moves the most are, once again, the farmers (think of income below poverty line, child labour, etc.)
It lookes like the futures stock market estimates are also based on hope that there will be no issues (climate, drought, excess rain) and good harvests for the next seasons 🤔
Let's remember, the above explanation is about commodity cocoa. The quality of beans the big industry is transforming into all kinds of candy and chocolate products. It makes around 95% of the global cocoa production, the bigger portion of it comes from West Africa, and it is still a world of exploitation!
Nobody knows what's next. Looks like we will live with high volatility in this market for a long time.
BUT one thing is for sure:
We'll keep making excellent chocolate from
☆ tracable
☆ ethically traded
☆ fine flavour and speciality cocoa beans from the free market...
No matter what!