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Alami Group, 33-20 Q Sentral, Jalan Stesen Sentral 2, Kuala Lumpur (2026)

18/09/2026

🌴 Malaysian Palm Oil Forum (MPOF) Kuala Lumpur 2026

The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) will host the 2nd Malaysian Palm Oil Forum Kuala Lumpur 2026 on 7 October 2026 at Shangri-La Kuala Lumpur.

This year’s theme, “Sustainable Growth in an Era of Geopolitical Realignment,” comes at an important time for the global oils and fats industry, as changing trade flows, sustainability requirements and geopolitical developments continue to reshape international markets.

The forum will bring together industry leaders, market experts, policymakers and international buyers to exchange insights, discuss emerging opportunities and explore the outlook for the palm oil industry.

📅 7 October 2026
📍 Shangri-La Kuala Lumpur
🌱 Theme: Sustainable Growth in an Era of Geopolitical Realignment
🎟 Early Bird Rate: RM1,000
💰 Save RM250 off the standard registration fee
🍽 Includes the MPOC Gala Dinner 2026

A valuable opportunity for industry players to connect, exchange market perspectives and strengthen international business relationships.

Programme, speakers & registration:
MPOF Kuala Lumpur 2026 – MPOC

https://www.mpoc.org.my/malaysian-palm-oil-forum-mpof-kuala-lumpur-2026/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

18/09/2026

🌴 PALM OIL MARKET UPDATE | 18 SEPTEMBER 2026

📊 Market Overview

Palm oil faces a softer external environment today, with weakness across CBOT soyoil, Dalian vegetable oils and crude oil weighing on sentiment. The sharp decline in Dalian palm oil is particularly important for the Asian session.

The main counterweights are a relatively weak ringgit, stronger canola and continued uncertainty over global oilseed demand.

🇨🇳 China – STRONGEST BEARISH SIGNAL

Chinese vegetable oils opened notably weaker:

Dalian palm oil: CNY9,913, -157
Dalian soyoil: CNY8,927, -90
Dalian soybeans: CNY5,014, -64

The broad decline across China's oilseed complex provides the clearest negative external signal for Malaysian palm oil today. Dalian palm's sharp fall is especially relevant and could limit FCPO recovery attempts.

🌱 Soy Complex – MIXED TO SOFT

CBOT November soybeans settled around $13.20/bu, only slightly lower after a volatile session. Expectations surrounding next week's U.S.-China talks continue to keep Chinese soybean demand in focus.

However, December soyoil fell to around 69.15 cents/lb, with subsequent indications near 68.87 cents. Since soyoil competes directly with palm oil, continued weakness here is a more immediate headwind for FCPO.

Soymeal remains comparatively strong, showing that the weakness is concentrated more heavily in the oil side of the soybean complex.

🛢 Crude Oil – SUPPORT FADING

Crude remains above $100/barrel but has continued to retreat.

October crude was around $101.91, with later indications near $101.09. Additional Saudi crude availability through Oman has eased some concerns over Middle East supply disruptions.

Oil above $100 still provides underlying biodiesel support, but the recent decline means the energy market is no longer providing the same bullish momentum to palm oil as earlier in the week.

🇪🇺 Physical Palm Market – SOFT

European physical prices also point to softer palm fundamentals.

November Malaysian/Sumatran CPO was offered around $1,440/MT CIF Rotterdam, down $60, while Malaysian FOB palm oil for November–December was around $1,225/MT, down $15.

Palm kernel oil also weakened, with Rotterdam Sep–Oct around $2,180/MT.

However, RBD palm olein was more resilient, with October Malaysian FOB offers around $1,230/MT, up $30.

Overall, the European market remains mixed but generally soft for crude palm oil.

🇨🇦 Canola – SUPPORTIVE

ICE November canola moved against the broader weakness, gaining C$7 to C$833.90/MT.

Harvest-weather concerns and a weaker Canadian dollar supported prices. This provides some support to the wider vegetable-oil complex, although it is currently being outweighed by weakness in Dalian and CBOT soyoil.

💱 Ringgit – STILL SUPPORTIVE, BUT LESS SO

USD/MYR eased toward approximately 4.087, after trading as high as 4.1010 previously.

The ringgit remains relatively weak compared with earlier levels, which helps Malaysian palm oil's export competitiveness. However, as the dollar rally cools and USD/MYR moves back below 4.10, some of that currency support is fading.

🌎 Macro Environment

Global equities recovered after the previous session's Fed-driven selloff, while U.S. Treasury yields retreated and the dollar stabilized.

This improves broader risk sentiment, but global central banks remain focused on inflation and tighter monetary policy. For commodities, that creates a mixed environment: better equity sentiment is positive, while high interest rates and a strong dollar can restrain demand.

🔎 Overall Market View

Near-term bias: NEUTRAL TO MILDLY BEARISH

The external picture has weakened compared with earlier this week. Dalian palm oil's sharp decline, weaker CBOT soyoil, softer crude oil and lower European CPO offers are the main pressures.

The downside is partly cushioned by a relatively weak ringgit, stronger canola and crude remaining above $100/barrel.

For FCPO, the immediate question is whether domestic buying can absorb the weakness coming from China and competing oils. Unless Dalian palm and CBOT soyoil recover, upside momentum may remain limited in the near term, while the market continues to consolidate.

18/09/2026

🌴 CRUDE PALM OIL TECHNICAL UPDATE | 18 SEPTEMBER 2026

📉 Short-Term Bias: NEUTRAL / MILDLY BEARISH

FCPO has lost some recovery momentum after failing to break out of its recent consolidation range. The move below the RM4,930 area increases the possibility of another test of RM4,900.

🎯 Downside Scenario

A sustained break below RM4,900 could extend the correction toward:

RM4,900 → RM4,870 → RM4,840

The RM4,840–4,870 area is the key near-term support zone. If this fails, attention shifts toward the major structural support around RM4,810.

📈 Upside Scenario

FCPO needs to recover above approximately RM4,960 to restore stronger upside momentum.

RM4,960 → RM5,000–5,010 → RM5,030

A break above RM5,030 would represent a much stronger bullish signal and suggest that the broader consolidation is resolving to the upside.

📊 Bigger Picture

The broader market remains within a consolidation structure below the August high around RM5,030.

As long as RM4,810 remains intact, the larger structure still leaves room for another upward move. A decisive break below RM4,810, however, would strengthen the bearish top/reversal scenario.

💭 My View

I remain cautiously bullish on the broader structure, but expect short-term pressure first.

FCPO may need to retest the RM4,900–4,840 zone before establishing its next direction. If buyers defend this area, I see potential for another recovery toward RM4,960, followed by RM5,000–5,030.

The key level for me is RM4,810. As long as the market remains above this level, I would treat the current weakness as consolidation rather than confirmation of a new downtrend.

Below RM4,810: outlook turns more bearish.
Above RM4,960: recovery strengthens.
Above RM5,030: broader bullish breakout confirmed.

🔎 Overall Technical View

Short term: Neutral / Mildly Bearish ↘
Medium term: Mildly Bullish while above RM4,810 ↗

Expected near-term range: RM4,840–5,000/MT

17/09/2026

SPPOMA 1st-15th Sep 2026
Yield : +18.75%
OER. : +0.48%
Prod: +21.28%

SPPOMA 1st-10th Sep 2026
Yield : +23.99%
OER. : +0.50%
Prod : +26.62%

SPPOMA 1st-5th Sep 2026
Yield : +32.92%
OER. : +0.43%
Prod : +35.88%

17/09/2026

🌴 PALM OIL MARKET UPDATE | 17 SEPTEMBER 2026
📊 Market Overview

Palm oil returns to trading today after the Malaysia Day holiday with a mixed-to-soft external backdrop. The main pressure comes from weaker European physical palm prices, softer crude oil, lower soyoil and weaker Dalian vegetable oils.

At the same time, the weaker ringgit and Indonesia’s commitment to B50 biodiesel in 2027 provide important underlying support.

🇪🇺 Physical Palm Oil – BEARISH

European palm oil came under significant pressure during the Malaysian holiday as increased supply availability and lower offers weighed on prices.

LSEG reported a sharp decline in Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil asking prices while BMD was closed. This suggests the physical market has weakened and could create some pressure as Malaysian futures reopen.

The key issue is that available palm supply appears comfortable while buyers are not chasing higher prices.

🛢 Crude Oil – STILL HIGH, BUT MOMENTUM WEAKENS

Energy markets have turned softer after the recent rally.

Brent settled around $105.83/barrel, down 2.7%, as Saudi Arabia offered additional crude through Oman, easing some immediate supply concerns. U.S. crude inventories also declined less than expected.

Crude remains historically high and therefore still provides underlying biodiesel support, but the latest decline removes some of the short-term bullish momentum for palm oil.

🌱 Soy Complex – MIXED

CBOT soybeans remained firm, with November soybeans around $13.20/bu, supported by expectations that China could increase U.S. purchases around the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting.

However, December soyoil weakened to around 69.7 cents/lb, while pre-market indications were softer again around 68.8 cents.

This creates a mixed signal for palm: stronger soybeans are supportive for the oilseed complex, but weaker soyoil is more directly negative for competing vegetable-oil prices.

🇨🇳 China – SLIGHTLY BEARISH

Chinese vegetable-oil futures were softer:

Dalian palm oil: CNY10,042, down 24
Dalian soyoil: CNY8,984, down 16
Dalian soybeans: CNY5,071, down 7

The weakness in both palm and soyoil provides a softer reference for BMD on reopening.

🇮🇩 Indonesia B50 – IMPORTANT LONGER-TERM SUPPORT

Indonesia plans to maintain B50 biodiesel blending in 2027, rather than immediately moving to B60.

The government indicated that B60 would require at least another year of preparation because of technical issues, including gasoil quality.

Indonesia could consume around 16.7 million kilolitres of palm-based biodiesel this year, with higher requirements expected next year.

For palm oil, continuation of B50 remains structurally supportive because it keeps a large volume of palm oil committed to Indonesia's domestic energy market. However, the absence of an immediate B60 increase means there is no additional demand shock from a higher mandate next year.

💱 Ringgit – SUPPORTIVE

USD/MYR has moved higher to around 4.09–4.10, following the stronger U.S. dollar after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bps.

A weaker ringgit generally supports FCPO by improving Malaysian palm oil's competitiveness for overseas buyers.

This could partially offset weakness coming from crude oil, soyoil and the physical market.

🌎 Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% and signalled that additional tightening could follow.

U.S. Treasury yields moved sharply higher, with the 10-year yield around 5%, while equities fell and the dollar strengthened.

This creates a more risk-off environment for commodities generally, although the stronger USD/MYR provides a separate currency advantage for Malaysian palm.

🔎 Overall Market View

Near-term bias: NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH

Palm oil reopens with several external headwinds: weaker European physical prices, falling crude oil, softer CBOT soyoil, lower Dalian palm oil and a risk-off global market environment.

On the supportive side, the weaker ringgit, still-high crude prices, firm soybeans and Indonesia's continued B50 biodiesel mandate should help limit downside pressure.

The key question today is whether domestic buying and the weaker ringgit can absorb the softer external signals accumulated while BMD was closed. If physical palm offers continue weakening while soyoil and crude remain under pressure, the upside in FCPO could remain limited despite the improving technical structure.

17/09/2026

🌴 CRUDE PALM OIL TECHNICAL UPDATE | 17 SEPTEMBER 2026

📈 Short-Term Bias: MILDLY BULLISH

FCPO is showing signs of recovery after the recent correction from the RM5,030/MT area. The market has moved above the recent falling trendline, improving the short-term technical picture and suggesting that selling momentum is easing.

The main level to watch is now around RM4,900.

🎯 Upside Scenario

A sustained move above RM4,900 would strengthen the recovery and could open the way toward:

RM4,900 → RM4,930 → RM4,960 → RM5,000

The RM4,930 area is the first upside target. If buying momentum strengthens beyond this level, FCPO could extend toward RM4,960–5,000.

The broader resistance area remains around RM5,000–5,030.

⚠ Downside Scenario

On the downside, the first important support area is around RM4,870, followed by RM4,840.

RM4,870 → RM4,840 → RM4,820 → RM4,810

A break below RM4,840 would weaken the current recovery and increase the risk of another test of RM4,820–4,810.

A decisive move below approximately RM4,810 would materially weaken the broader structure and increase the risk that the August peak develops into a double-top formation.

📊 Bigger Picture

FCPO remains in a broad consolidation after reaching approximately RM5,030 in August.

The market is currently caught between two possible scenarios:

Bullish: A recovery through RM5,030 would indicate that the broader upward structure is resuming and could open higher levels.

Bearish: A break below approximately RM4,810 would strengthen the double-top scenario and point to a deeper correction.

Until one of these boundaries is broken, the broader market remains in consolidation.

🔎 Key Levels

Resistance:
RM4,900 – Key breakout area
RM4,930 – First upside target
RM4,960 – Higher resistance
RM5,000–5,030 – Major resistance zone

Support:
RM4,870 – Immediate support
RM4,840 – Key support
RM4,820 – Secondary support
RM4,810 – Critical support

📌 Overall Technical View

Short term: MILDLY BULLISH ↗
Medium term: NEUTRAL / CONSOLIDATION ↔

The break above the falling trendline is a constructive development. RM4,900 is now the main upside trigger, with a successful breakout potentially extending the recovery toward RM4,930 and RM4,960.

As long as FCPO remains above the RM4,840–4,810 support zone, the possibility of a further rebound remains intact.

15/09/2026

Malaysia Sept 1-15 vs. Aug 1-15 palm oil exports (in tonnes)

ITS: 560,292 vs. 681,266 (down 120,974 or -17.76%)
Amspec: 496,160 vs 667,257 (down 171,097 or -25.64%)

15/09/2026

Malaysia Sep 1-15 vs. Aug 1-15 palm oil export (in tonnes)

AmSpec: 496,160 vs 667,257 (-171,097 or down 25.64%)

15/09/2026

🌴 PALM OIL MARKET UPDATE | 15 SEPTEMBER 2026
📊 Market Overview

Malaysian palm oil is trading in a mixed but relatively supported environment. The November FCPO contract settled at RM4,853/MT, recovering from recent weakness as high crude oil prices and firmer global oilseed markets provided support.

However, the market continues to balance these bullish external factors against high Malaysian inventories and slower export demand.

🛢 Energy Market

Crude oil remains a major supportive factor. Brent is holding around $105–106/barrel, while WTI is above $100/barrel, as Middle East tensions and disruptions to regional oil flows maintain supply concerns.

High crude prices generally improve palm oil's competitiveness as a biodiesel feedstock and should help provide underlying support to the vegetable-oil complex.

🌱 Global Vegetable Oils

The broader vegetable-oil market remains mixed. CBOT soyoil recently strengthened alongside soybeans, while ICE canola closed higher at around C$823/MT.

Dalian markets were mixed, with palm oil showing some strength while Chinese soyoil remained softer. Overall, competing oils are providing some support to palm, but there is currently no strong synchronized rally across the complex.

🇲🇾 Malaysian Supply & Demand

Domestic fundamentals remain the main concern.

Malaysian inventories have risen as production remains seasonally strong, while exports have weakened. September 1–10 shipments were estimated 11.7%–17.5% lower month-on-month.

If production remains high while exports fail to recover, inventories could stay elevated over the coming months and restrict significant upside in CPO prices.

🇪🇺 Physical Market

European palm oil demand remains relatively quiet. Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil asking prices softened despite stronger BMD futures, suggesting that physical buying has yet to fully follow the futures recovery.

Meanwhile, European rapeseed and soyoil markets strengthened, keeping competition between vegetable oils active.

💱 Currency

The ringgit remains relatively weak at around 4.07–4.08 against the USD.

This is mildly supportive for Malaysian palm oil exports because a weaker ringgit improves affordability for international buyers, although currency support alone is unlikely to offset weak export volumes.

🌦 Weather & Longer-Term Supply

El Niño remains an important medium-term factor. Current expectations suggest that any significant impact on Southeast Asian palm production would become more visible during 2027 rather than immediately.

This means current high inventories may dominate the near-term market, while weather-related production concerns could become increasingly important further ahead.

🔎 Overall Market View

Short term: NEUTRAL TO MILDLY BULLISH

Supportive factors: high crude oil prices, biodiesel economics, firmer soy complex, weaker ringgit and longer-term El Niño concerns.

Pressure factors: high Malaysian stocks, seasonal production strength, weak September exports and relatively soft physical demand.

The market therefore appears caught between strong external support from energy markets and weaker domestic palm fundamentals. Crude oil should help protect the downside, but a sustained move higher will likely require an improvement in Malaysian exports and physical demand.

🇲🇾 BMD will be closed on 16 September for Malaysia Day and will resume trading on 17 September.

15/09/2026

🌴 CRUDE PALM OIL TECHNICAL UPDATE | 15 SEPTEMBER 2026

CPO is showing the first meaningful recovery signal after the recent sharp correction, with prices rebounding from the RM4,820 area and breaking above the short-term falling trendline.

📈 Near-term momentum has improved. The first important hurdle is around RM4,903. A sustained break above this level would strengthen the rebound and open the way toward RM4,930–4,964.

The bigger test comes around RM4,985–5,030. This remains the major resistance area that has repeatedly stopped the market since the August high of RM5,031.

📉 On the downside, RM4,876 is now important support. A move back below this level would weaken the recovery and could send CPO back toward RM4,843–4,820.

The daily structure is also becoming more interesting. The recent correction may be developing into a bullish consolidation rather than the start of a larger downtrend, but this still needs confirmation through stronger upside follow-through.

🎯 Levels I’m Watching

Resistance: RM4,903 → RM4,930 → RM4,964 → RM5,000/5,030
Support: RM4,876 → RM4,843 → RM4,820 → RM4,788

My view: Short-term bias has improved from bearish to neutral/bullish. Holding above RM4,876 and clearing RM4,903 would strengthen the case for a recovery toward RM4,930–4,964.

🌴 The correction may have found its first floor, but the real confirmation will come if CPO can rebuild above RM4,930 and eventually challenge RM5,000 again.

Alami Group

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Monday	09:30 - 18:00
Tuesday	09:30 - 18:00
Wednesday	09:30 - 18:00
Thursday	09:30 - 18:00
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