25/11/2025
When the United States pushed Ukraine to agree to a peace deal by Thanksgiving—one that initially resembled near-surrender terms—Kyiv resisted. Senior Ukrainian officials rushed to Geneva for urgent negotiations, and throughout Sunday, delegates from both the US and Ukraine were seen moving between meeting locations in black, tinted limousines. They were joined by national security advisers from Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.
Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian negotiating team, appeared visibly tense during his brief public appearance. The pressure was understandable: the starting proposal was so heavily tilted toward Russian demands that the talks began with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denying that it had been drafted by the Kremlin.
Despite this, Donald Trump made clear that Ukraine needed to sign quickly or face unspecified consequences, leaving Kyiv with little choice but to participate.
On Sunday evening, Rubio announced that “tremendous progress” had been made, with only “a couple of things” left unresolved. He refused to disclose further details, calling the situation “delicate.”
A joint Ukraine–US statement later revealed the creation of an entirely new proposal, described as an “updated and revised framework document.” While the full text has not been released, the Financial Times quoted Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, Sergiy Kyslytsya, who said the new 19-point plan retains “very little” from the original US draft. The updated version is believed to incorporate key European amendments reported earlier by Reuters—changes that make the proposal far more acceptable to Kyiv.
In the revised draft, the automatic veto on Ukraine’s future NATO membership has been removed, as has a proposed cap on the size of Ukraine’s armed forces. The plan states that no Western troops would be permanently stationed in Ukraine, though it stops short of a complete prohibition.
On territorial issues—lands Ukrainian forces have fought to defend for over a decade—the new proposal no longer requires Ukraine to surrender the remaining areas of the Donbas region. Instead, Kyiv would pursue the restoration of occupied territories strictly through diplomatic means, a position President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously supported.
A controversial full amnesty for war crimes has also been deleted.
Most significantly, the revised plan now includes references to security guarantees. Several Western officials, including UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, have mentioned the possibility of Article 5-style commitments that would obligate the United States to defend Ukraine in the event of another Russian invasion. Ukraine has repeatedly said such guarantees are non-negotiable.
It remains unclear how many of Europe’s proposed changes made it into the final document, but German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the updated deal as “significantly modified” in a positive direction.
How the proposal shifted so dramatically within a single day is uncertain, especially with hard-line US figures such as Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, involved in the talks. The initial pro-Russian draft reportedly stemmed from Witkoff’s earlier meeting with Vladimir Putin, after which he returned repeating many Kremlin narratives almost verbatim.
The newly revised framework is much closer to something Ukraine might eventually accept. This may explain why Trump has moved from criticising Kyiv for showing him “zero gratitude” to suggesting that “something good” may be forthcoming.
Still, major doubts remain. There is no sign that Russia is prepared to halt its military campaign unless forced to do so. Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center notes that Putin is “much more self-confident militarily right now,” pointing to political infighting in Kyiv, corruption scandals, struggles with mobilization, and recent Russian battlefield advances.
Some analysts believe Trump’s push has created new momentum for peace—something Ukrainians desperately want after years of war. Yet it is difficult to ignore the feeling that, despite days of intense diplomacy, negotiators may have circled back to where they began.
As Stanovaya puts it: “Russia’s position is, ‘We have laid out our demands—take them or not. If you accept them, we will stop the war. If not, we will wait until you’re ready.’”
