25/08/2026
The global market is shifting, but not evenly across origins.
Brazil’s bumper crop is padding the headline numbers, but washed milds tell a different story: Colombia, Central America and East Africa are all facing tight availability, rising labor and input costs, and El Niño-linked weather risk — a combination that’s keeping upward pressure on these origins even as the broader market eases.
Meanwhile, ASEAN robusta is the one bright spot: Vietnam and Indonesia are both tracking record-to-near-record crops, and that supply is exactly what feeds the Philippine market. That has kept robusta comparatively steady even while Arabica swings hard. But with the dollar-to-peso and freight costs still moving, “steady” doesn’t mean “cheap.”
Here are some insights:
