10/29/2025
U.S. CATTLE REPORT📉 Understanding the Big Four: U.S. Beef Supply Still 1 Billion Pounds Short 📉 Argentina Just A Smoke Screen
The United States has four key international partners that significantly impact its beef supply: Mexico, Canada, Australia, and most recently, Brazil. These countries each can contribute over 1 billion pounds of beef annually to the U.S. market — a threshold that makes them strategically important.
All the commotion last week over Argentina stemmed from a proposal to export 80,000 metric tons (or 176 million pounds) of beef to the U.S. in 2026 — a modest figure compared to the “Big Four.”
Take Brazil, for instance. In 2019, Brazil exported just 163 million pounds of beef to the U.S. — nearly the same as Argentina’s current proposal. But by 2025, Brazil has skyrocketed to become the largest source of U.S. beef imports, already shipping 810 million pounds through July and on pace to exceed 1.3 billion pounds by year’s end. That’s 1.13 billion pounds more than Argentina’s projected increase — a nearly 7.5x difference.
Australia has long been a cornerstone of U.S. beef imports. Since 1989, the U.S. has imported an average of 827 million pounds per year from Australia, making up roughly 29% of total beef imports. In 2022, that number dropped to 402 million pounds, the lowest in 36 years — but surged back to 1.11 billion pounds in 2024, a 700+ million pound increase in just two years. That’s more than three times the size of Argentina’s expected export boost.
As for Canada and Mexico, their roles go beyond beef imports. They also ship live cattle to the U.S., which should be factored in to create a clearer picture Using the USDA's 2024 Livestock Summary — which showed 27.0 billion pounds of beef produced from 31.8 million head, or 849.06 pounds per head — we can estimate the beef contribution from live cattle imports.
In 2024:
🇨🇦 Canada exported 1 billion pounds of beef and 793,000 head of cattle, contributing an estimated 669 million pounds of additional beef — totaling ~1.67 billion pounds.
🇲🇽 Mexico exported 597 million pounds of beef and 1.25 million head of cattle, adding roughly 1.06 billion pounds — totaling ~1.66 billion pounds.
These figures underscore why Argentina’s proposed 176 million pounds is barely a ripple in a sea of billion-pound partners. The focus on Argentina might be political, but in market terms, they remain a rounding error compared to the Big Four.
The U.S. beef supply in 2026 is projected to total 31.097 billion pounds, down from 31.859 billion pounds in 2025 — a decrease of 762 million pounds — and 32.324 billion pounds in 2024, marking a two-year decline of 1.227 billion pounds. Beef supplies were already tight in 2024, and to simply return to those levels in 2026, the U.S. would need more than a billion-pound increase.
Moving forward, the supply will be most impacted by tariff policy on Brazilian beef and the potential resumption of cattle imports from Mexico. In short, the U.S. needs over a billion pounds just to get back to where it was in 2024.
U.S. CATTLE REPORT: https://www.nationalbeefwire.com/u-s-cattle-report
High Plains Journal Oklahoma Farm Report/ Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Katq Radio Sandhills Cattle Association Eastern Cattle Market ReportCircle 5 School for Cattleman Hastings Tribune Farm Babe Cannon Hall Farm D&H Cattle Co. Tulsa Stockyards Inc. 1HandnFarming
