09/26/2022
Here is some good information to know for new Florida residents experiencing their first Hurricane.
Overnight Ian Thoughts:
1. This track is by NO means set in stone. Yes, the models are close to agreeing. Does that really matter? Mother Nature does what she wants sometimes and forecasting the path of a hurricane is probably the toughest part of our science. We've seen it several times before. Hurricane Charley might be the best example.
2. The winds of Ian will very likely start to weaken long before reaching our latitude. (East-West line) The same pattern that will probably steer it to the right is also the same ingredients that will cause the storm to peak in the Southern Gulf, and begin to weaken before a potential landfall. That weakening could be significant.
3. But at the end of the day, it is almost guaranteed that tropical storm winds will impact the area on Wednesday and Thursday...stronger on the coast. Also remember, the extreme winds with any hurricane, are in a VERY small part of the storm. It's usually only about 10 miles out and scattered at that. I don't want to minimize the threat, but I also don't want you to think that this giant mass of winds greater than 120 mph will hit the entire area. That's just not how it works. I continue with my thoughts...think Irma. The winds will be comparable for most, but a few areas will have winds higher. Again, the strongest winds will be along the coast, NOT inland. (Think West of I-75)
4. My biggest concern is the surge. That's an area of water pushed by the storm that goes inland as the storm approaches land. It's not a wall of water...it's more like a rise in water. If Ian stays just offshore and moves up the coast, it will push water all along our beach communities. How far would the surge go inland? It's usually right along the coast, but in some cases, with a storm like this, maybe 1/4 miles inland. I've seen surge in Port Richey go all the way to US 19 with Josephine back in 1995. There will be evacuations starting on Monday. Find your flood zone. If you live in a zone being evacuated, DO SO. "Hide from the wind and run from the water" is my mantra in this kind of situation.
5. This is NOT the time to freak out. Rule #7 is a motto I use in hope of getting people to realize things aren't always as bad as they seem. It's tough to make a good decision when you're freaking out. This track is absolutely not set in stone. The NHC just said that in their 11pm advisory. However, as I see it, people who live right on the beach, or within a stone's throw from the beach, need to take this seriously. If the track is more offshore, we're good to go. That could absolutely happen. If it doesn't, it could mean a lot of water.
6. This community is my home. I'm blessed to live in paradise. We WILL get through this, whatever we face. I take your faith in our team seriously, and I promise we will get you everything you need to know to keep you and your family safe. You mean the world to me. Thanks for your trust. Now let's go tackle this together.
