09/26/2026
WAIT A MINUTE… BEEF IS EXPENSIVE, CATTLE PRICES ARE HIGH, AND ONE OF AMERICA’S BIGGEST BEEF PROCESSORS IS LOSING HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS? 🐂🥩
Yep.
And if that doesn’t show you how complicated the beef market actually is, I don’t know what will.
I saw a post saying Tyson expected to lose $500–$650 million selling beef this year, so I went looking for the current numbers.
It’s actually worse now.
Tyson updated its outlook September 3 and says its Beef segment is expected to lose $625 MILLION to $775 MILLION on an adjusted operating basis in fiscal 2026.
Now stop and think about that for a minute.
You’re standing in the grocery store looking at beef prices thinking,
“Good Lord, somebody has to be making a fortune.”
Meanwhile cattle are bringing historically strong prices.
And one of the largest beef processors in America says its beef business is losing hundreds of millions of dollars.
So where in the world is the money going?
Well… welcome to the cattle cycle.
America simply doesn’t have the cattle numbers we once did.
USDA counted 28.5 million beef cows in July, still 1% fewer than a year earlier, and estimated this year’s calf crop at 32.5 million head, down 2%.
Fewer cattle competing for the same demand means processors have to pay more to get cattle.
And processors don’t magically turn a $3,000 animal into steaks for free.
There are plants.
Employees.
Transportation.
Refrigeration.
Inspection.
Packaging.
Equipment.
Utilities.
Waste.
Distribution.
And then you’ve still got the retailer at the other end of the chain.
That’s why I keep saying:
The price of a calf and the price of a ribeye are connected, but they are NOT the same market.
And here’s the part I think people really need to understand.
The cattleman isn’t necessarily getting rich.
The processor isn’t necessarily getting rich.
And the consumer sure as hell doesn’t feel rich standing at the meat counter. 😂
That tells us something bigger is happening.
We have a supply problem.
You cannot shrink the American cattle herd for years and then decide one Tuesday afternoon that you’d like more beef.
A cow takes roughly nine months to have a calf.
That calf takes many more months to reach harvest.
And rebuilding the breeding herd means ranchers have to KEEP heifers they could otherwise sell.
That’s tomorrow’s beef supply walking around in today’s pasture.
This is exactly why I’ve been beating this drum so hard.
We cannot fix America’s beef supply with a short-term Band-Aid.
We need cattle.
We need ranchers who can afford to keep raising them.
We need independent processors.
We need competition.
We need consumers who can afford the finished product.
And we need to understand that decisions made today can affect how much American beef is available two and three years from now.
The beef market isn’t “broken” because one person along the chain is getting too much money.
It’s a whole chain being squeezed by an extremely tight cattle supply — and everybody feels that squeeze differently.
The rancher feels it.
The processor feels it.
The grocery store feels it.
And ultimately…
the family standing at the meat counter feels it.
That’s why protecting America’s cattle herd matters.
Not just to ranchers.
To everybody who eats.
🇺🇸🐂🥩
America Feeds America.
