08/18/2026
The cattle ain't there.
It's pretty simple.
Packer concentration is to blame. No competition for too long forced too many independent feeders out of business which in turn forced out cow guys. Actually it prevented new blood from stepping in. Young guys couldn't service the debt and show any profit.
It's a big old plate of "I told you so" being served up by us traders and watchers. The USDA claims a small annual decline that has continued for years causing the numbers to be where we are today. Damn near all of us cow guys have been saying that the calf crop was gonna be smaller than USDA predictions for a while.
The guys who know, know. The packers moth balled over 10 percent of their capacity in the last 6 months.
Commercial yards that rarely have empty pens have entire alleys sitting vacant now.
Some analysts said the decreased cow kill this year points towards expansion. Those of us who are going to sales and talking to actual producers know that the kill is down because the cowherds have been culled hard to the point that the culls don't exist!
A 200 cow herd has half the culls that a 400 cow herd does!
There's probably gonna be some opportunities in the marketplace for both producers and consumers alike. The key will be recognizing them.