06/27/2026
I copied this as I agree and think this is spot on. At this point, my verdict is:
There is no single cause. The evidence points to a combination of factors, with some contributing more than others.
If I had to rank them based on the evidence available today (June 27, 2026), I would estimate:
1. Movement of infested livestock or domestic animals — High confidence
This appears to be one of the most important drivers of spread over longer distances. The Texas Animal Health Commission’s movement restrictions support the conclusion that officials view animal movement as a significant risk factor.
2. Local spread by adult screwworm flies — High confidence
Once screwworm becomes established on a ranch, adult flies can readily infest nearby livestock. The Jim Hogg calf case strongly suggests there was already an active local fly population.
3. Wildlife movement — Moderate confidence
Deer, feral hogs, coyotes, and other wildlife can carry infestations and likely help spread screwworm locally, especially between neighboring ranches. Whether they explain all of the county-to-county spread is less certain.
4. Wind-assisted movement — Low confidence
There is little evidence that recent wind events have been a primary cause of the outbreak. Adult screwworm flies generally avoid sustained high winds, although occasional long-distance transport by weather cannot be completely ruled out.
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The question that still concerns me
What continues to stand out is how quickly new counties are appearing.
If spread were occurring only through the normal flight of adult flies, we might expect a more gradual, continuous expansion.
Instead, we’ve seen cases appear in counties separated by considerable distances. That pattern suggests there may have been multiple undetected infestations or that movement of infested animals has accelerated the spread.
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My biggest concern going forward
The Jim Hogg case changes the situation.
The calf shown in those photographs demonstrates that:
* adult flies are reproducing in that area,
* newborn calves are highly vulnerable,
* infestations can become severe in less than 24 hours.
That means ranchers in Jim Hogg, Starr, Zapata, Webb, Brooks, and surrounding counties should assume there is ongoing local risk, not just the possibility of infected animals arriving from elsewhere.
Overall conclusion
The outbreak is no longer just a border issue or an imported-animal issue. In parts of South Texas, it now appears that local transmission is occurring, while the movement of infested animals likely continues to introduce the parasite into new areas.
In other words, both are true:
* Animal movement likely explains much of the long-distance spread, and
* Local fly populations are now sustaining the outbreak once it reaches a new area.
That combination is what makes New World Screwworm particularly difficult to contain once it becomes established.