09/22/2026
This is something that people ought to be talking about and aren’t—the combined effect of reductions in oil supplies and fertilizer coupled with a super El Nino weather phenomenon. Everyone knows about the spike in gas and diesel prices. Some folks know about the reduction in availability of fertilizer, which is already having an effect in the northern hemisphere. Both of those will reduce harvests and increase prices for food in the US and northern hemisphere countries. Add to those the loss of crops from the southern hemisphere countries, who are just getting ready to plant, and we are looking at a global food crisis.
Hunger doesn’t care if you believe climate change is real. Diesel is still over $6 a gallon even if you don’t believe climate change is human-caused.
Earth’s oceans have broken heat records for 100 consecutive days, averaging 21.07°C as a Super El Niño takes hold. At the exact same time, the global fossil fuel supply chain is suffering a structural heart attack. The collision of these two crises is no longer just an energy story, it is threatening a full-blown global food emergency, with the FAO Food Price Index hitting a 3-year high.
1. Fertilizer & Energy Bottleneck. With the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, 20% of global LNG and one-third of seaborne fertilizer trade are paralyzed. European TTF gas has doubled to €73–82/MWh, while EU storage sits at just 68% against an 80% target. Direct result: global urea prices spiked 80% in two months to $850/ton
2. Rice & Wheat Under Severe Strain. Global rice prices have surged 30% this year to $480/ton. Worldwide wheat forecasts have been slashed by 25m tons due to compounding heat across Europe and persistent Black Sea bottlenecks. In India, the weakest monsoon in two decades is driving the country’s first drop in rice output in a decade, and its steepest decline in 20 years
3. Sugar & Corn Distortion: Global sugar prices up 12% in August as European sugar beet output forecast to drop 15%. With crude oil hovering near $100/barrel, Brazilian mills are diverting sugarcane into ethanol instead of food, even as domestic harvests plunged 28%. Compounding this, global fertilizer costs are up over 30%, inflating the cost of growing basic staples like corn
4. High-Stakes Soy Gamble: European growers are seeing margins wiped out by a 29% rise in agricultural diesel and persistently high synthetic nitrogen costs. In South America, farmers are planting soybeans into extreme El Niño conditions, yet global commodity balances are still banking on a record 440-million-ton crop. Global food security is effectively gambling on that single forecast
5. Scorched Root Vegetables: July soil moisture across Western Europe was drier than during the historic 2022 drought, with exceptional deficits across France, Spain, Germany, and the UK. Baked soils have knocked potato harvests down 15% to 23%, sending supermarket root vegetable prices surging 25% to 40%
6. Fisheries & Aquaculture Squeezed: Record marine heatwaves crushed Peru’s anchovy fishery. Fishing boats landed 25% of an already reduced, 10-year-low quota. Global fishmeal production dropped 26% YOY, driving prices to $2,500/ton (25% higher than the last El Niño peak) and inflating feed costs for fish and shrimp farms worldwide
7. Fiscal Toll: Even after burning €97 billion (€265m/day) propping up fossil fuel subsidies in 2024, EU emergency crisis bailouts surged back to €500m/day once Middle Eastern supply lines were choked
In short: Choked straits and gas-based fertilizers are threatening to starve the world
Renewables = food and national security
