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Topflight Grain Cooperative Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. is a farmer-owned grain cooperative in the heartland of the USA, in the middle of Illinois grain belt.

10/16/2026

Friday, October 16, 2026
Morning Markets: Corn: -2.
Beans: -7.25. Wheat: -9.
United Prairie will be serving lunch Monday, 10/19 from 11am-1pm in Pierson
State Bank of Bement will be passing out Harvest Bags Wednesday, 10/21 from 1:30pm-3:30pm in Bement

MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. This week's theme of lower ag futures trade is again present to start the morning, with the wheat market leading the decline this time while the bean futures look to make it a perfect five for five week on the downside. Friday's loosening of the US balance sheets has led to a reduction in overall market length this week by the funds, and there has been little in the way of any sort of bullish info to offset it. End users are marginally underbought into winter which, along with seasonals, should provide some sort of support going forward, but for the rally cycle in corn and soybean futures to resume and for contract highs to be challenged, it likely takes some measure of new bullish development regarding one of either El Niño and the South American crop, the war between Russia and Ukraine, or buying by the Chinese. Corn futures to start Friday are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 8-10 cents lower.





Trivia: What TFG employee has a birthday today? (answer below)

Crude Oil is down $0.66 at $95.84
US Dollar is down at $101.74
Dow futures are up 46 points at 52,476

WEATHER:
Weekend weather for the Midwest, while noticeably cooler than previous days this week, looks to be on the calmer side, as high pressure on the backside of this week's low looks to produce a cold, sunny weekend across the region. Temperatures warm back up into next week, but the models don't have much if any rainfall in the forecast for at least the next seven days which should allow for another good week of harvest activity.

OTHER HEADLINES:
This morning's weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending October 8th, is expected to show corn sales between 500k-1.2 mil MTs, soybean sales between 500k-1.2 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 300k-600k MTs. The report is delayed a day due to Monday's holiday, but will still be out at 7:30am central time.
CONAB on Thursday said they see Brazil soybean production at 181.6 MMTs in the coming season, up a little over a million tons from last year's record despite El Niño weather. Total corn production is seen at 148 MMTs, up from 144.5 last year, with the safrinha crop estimated at 113.2 MMTs. The USDA last week pegged Brazil soybean production at 186 MMTs and corn production at 139 MMTs.
Also out Thursday was monthly soybean crush data from NOPA for the month of September - the report showed US crush during the month at 196.3 mil bu, down some 5% from August and down a little less than 1% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks were seen at 1.053 bil lbs, down 12% from August and at the lowest level since 2014.
Weekly crop data out of Argentina from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed corn planting progress has advanced to 34.8% complete over the last week, up around 5% from the same time last year. The group said that wheat harvest, meanwhile, had been delayed due to excessive moisture.
The International Grains Council this week raised its 2026/27 corn production forecast to 1.307 billion tons, up 6 million tons from its previous projection largely on increases in production estimates in the US. World wheat production forecasts were left unchanged at 820 million tons.
Industry data released Friday from the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia showed wheat production in the 2026/27 season for the region, which is Australia's largest grain exporter, is now expected to be larger than originally thought following mild weather throughout spring. Production is now seen at 10.9 MMTs, up 9% from the previous estimate made in September but still down from the 13.3 MMTs produced in the region last year.
Weekly data from the USDA for the week ending October 10th showed barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week at 399k tons, which was up 20% from the week prior; corn shipments in the week totaled 190k tons, up 27%, and soybean shipments totaled 207k tons, up 16%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $26.85/short ton, down $2.00 from the week prior.

EXPORT NEWS:
127,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2026/2027 marketing year
558,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year
236,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year

Answer: Kelley Lawhorn!

Be careful!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: [email protected]
Image

10/15/2026

Thursday, October 15, 2026
Morning Markets: Corn: +0.
Beans: -4. Wheat: +2.50.
United Prairie will be serving lunch Monday, 10/19 from 11am-1pm in Pierson
State Bank of Bement will be passing out Harvest Bags Wednesday, 10/21 from 1:30pm-3:30pm in Bement

MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Chicago ag markets are similar this morning to how they ended the day on Wednesday, with the beans and bean oil extending losses on the downside while the meal is higher and the grains are caught in the middle and near unchanged. We've talked about it all week, but market inputs continue to be rather scarce outside of the same handful of items we've talked about for some time now. Traders and the markets are slowly transitioning from the US growing season to the South American growing season, but the bigger picture themes like El Niño, the wars in the Black Sea and in Iran, and Chinese buying aren't going anywhere. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading either side of unchanged again, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading around a penny higher.





Trivia: What state produces the most pumpkins? (answer below)

Crude Oil is up $0.18 at $94.08
US Dollar is down at $102.05
Dow futures are up 213 points at 52,071

WEATHER:
The slow moving frontal boundary discussed yesterday across the central US looks to again be the main talking point weather-wise for Thursday, as models continue to show additional rains along a corridor from west TX to the Great Lakes and the northern part of the Midwest. The front will also bring a sharp drop in temperatures over the next 24 hours, with cooler air in the Plains today expected to work east into the weekend. The chill doesn't look to linger beyond the first part of next week though, as highs look to return to above normal for most all of the country thereafter.

OTHER HEADLINES:
This morning's weekly ethanol update from the EIA, delayed a day because of Monday's holiday, is expected to show average daily production in the US in the week ending October 9th between 1.065-1.095 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are estimated between 23.493-23.893 mil bbls. The report will be out at 11am central time this morning as opposed to the regular 9:30am.
NOPA is scheduled to release monthly US soybean crush data for September later this morning - traders see the report showing soybeans crushed in the month at 203.737 mil bu, which would be down about 1% from August but up around 3% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are seen at 1.116 bil lbs, which would be down 7% from the end of August and the lowest figure since November 2024. Data will be out this morning at 11am central time.
Brazil's CONAB is set to release its monthly crop report this morning, with the data being the first for the 2026/27 crop year. The group released preliminary estimates last month, but traders see today's update showing soybean production at 181.0 MMTs and corn production at 147.2 MMTs; both figures would be up from a year ago. Soybean planted area is seen at 49.3 million hectares vs 48.6 mil last year and corn planted area is seen at 23.1 million hectares vs 22.6 mil last year. The report will be out at 7am central time.
Financial markets this morning are still trading under the influence from yesterday's monthly inflation update, which came in hotter than expected on an annual basis at 3.7%, largely on higher energy prices. The CME's FedWatch tool sees the odds of an October rate hike at just 30%, but these odds jump to north of 65% for the December meeting, as traders still broadly expect interest rates to go up one more time before the calendar turns to 2027.
Sources cited by the New York Post this week say Russian diesel is expected to reach the US before the midterm elections on November 3rd, potentially offering price relief to farmers and grain shippers. The administration is said to also be weighing lifting restrictions on some shadow-fleet vessels in an effort to help lower global shipping costs and increase oil flows out of the Middle East.
Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian energy infrastructure this week after pausing to accommodate President Trump's announcement of a proposed energy ceasefire, with President Zelensky indicating to reporters that "we're done," in reference to the short-lived agreement. Crude oil futures prices are quiet this morning and near unchanged after trading lower overnight.

EXPORT NEWS:
330,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year
283,450 metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year

Answer: Illinois. Nearly 40% of U.S. production comes from the Prairie State alone.

Be careful!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: [email protected]
Image

10/15/2026

Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: -2.
Beans: -6.50. Wheat: +4
United Prairie will be serving lunch Friday, 10/16 from 11am-1pm in Pierson
State Bank of Bement will be passing out Harvest Bags Wednesday, 10/21 from 1:30-3:30pm in Bemen

Good evening!

Trivia: 1971 World Series MVP? First Latin American baseball player to win the award. (answer below)

Market Recap-
Fresh input to the grain and soy markets was rather minimal again on Wednesday, which produced another mixed/choppy affair at the CBOT along with two-sided, directionless closes. Light rains across the Midwest look to briefly slow harvest pace again for a day or two into the weekend, but there's dryness in the forecast thereafter and the overall market situation continues to be little changed from previous days. Price discovery is a push/pull between new crop harvest/supply pleasure in the northern hemisphere and a global economic outlook that sees ongoing inflationary risks from a pair of wars that show no signs of ending.

Corn Summary-
Corn futures were lower again at mid-week, trading in the same general range as they have the previous two days following Friday's selloff as there continues to be little new in terms of fresh input and as harvest maybe slows a bit in the south with rains this morning but continues to chug along elsewhere. While sideways price actions this week on one hand has likely been the result of market re-evaluation following the new data on Friday, it’s also possible that it’s the result of farmer hedge selling being offset by end user pricing that isn't allowing futures to really go anywhere. The looser balance sheet relative to this time a week ago is obviously new, but otherwise, the current fundamental landscape, while convoluted, is little changed from what it’s been and traders are looking for something new to grab ahold of.

Soybean Summary-
Confirmation of rumored Chinese demand this morning clearly had little impact on price sentiment throughout the day on Wednesday, with the beans and oil closing lower and the meal higher on what could've been construed as some form of buy the rumor, sell the fact type trade. There was little else new in terms of inputs, with the harvest discussion similar to corn in that there may be brief delays for a day or two this week, but pace otherwise looks to remain hot and heavy into next week. The market knows China is going to buy another 10-12 MMTs of beans between now and the end of the year, but the question then becomes what happens to demand beyond there, especially if Brazil is staring down another record crop.

Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed quietly higher on Wednesday, with the situation still little changed in the Black Sea and there still little sign that any sort of progress is being made. While minimal, strength today could've been the result of the above mentioned tender headline being at a higher volume than expected, indicating that global trade at least remains decent despite the ongoing disruptions.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up around $1.00/bbl.

Weather Updates-
A frontal boundary is working across the central US on Wednesday, with rains falling across the southern part of the region mostly today and then expanding north and east over the next 24 hours. Rainfall totals look to generally range from 1-2" for most of the region, though some locally heavier totals could be seen further to the south.
The front looks to bring about a drop in temperatures also by the end of the week, with Friday's highs expected to be down some 30+ degrees from those seen the last couple days. The cold will bring about frost risks throughout a lot of the northeast and the northern Midwest, but doesn't look to last beyond the weekend.
Week two forecasts continue to show above normal rainfall biases across a lot of the central and west-central US, while the southeast and the East Coast are continuing to show up drier. Limited model agreement in the period is keeping confidence in the forecast low, but if upper air flow stays out of the southwest, it would favor the outlook and should keep the central and south-central US well watered.
Temperature outlooks are in poor agreement in the 10-15 day period, but have warmer than normal temperatures in the forecast for most all of the US in the ten day period.
Forecasts for Brazil have continued to push better rains into the mid-section of the country over the last couple days, with week one precip maps showing 1-2" of rainfall across most all of the central part of the country and also showing a drier outlook than recent weeks in the far south.
In Argentina, rains look to continue falling regularly throughout the southern half of the country over the next week, but the north has gone drier over the last couple days along with the southern part of Brazil.

Answer: Roberto Clemente, Pittsburgh Pirates. Died in a 1972 plane crash while delivering emergency relief supplies to survivors of the Nicaragua Earthquake.


Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: [email protected]
Image

10/14/2026

Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Morning Markets: Corn: -1.50.
Beans: +4.50. Wheat: -3.75.
State Bank of Bement will be passing out Harvest Bags TODAY! from 1:30pm-3:30pm in Bement
United Prairie will be serving lunch Friday, 10/16 from 11am-1pm in Pierson

MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Like previous days so far this week, overnight ag trade on Wednesday has been quietly mixed to start, with trading ranges in the grain markets again small and the soy complex quietly higher on some back-and-fill type trade relative to yesterday. Whether it be that traders are stunned from last week's balance sheet adjustments or that there just simply hasn't been much of anything new to grab hold of the last couple days, trade this week has had a 'so now what?' feel to it, and we're not sure this morning just what bucks this trend in the short term. Bigger picture market inputs are unchanged but it feels today like the trade is looking for some sort of new input to provide direction into the end of the year. Corn futures this morning are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 7-8 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower.





Trivia: What movies iconic bench scenes were filmed in Chippewa Square, Savannah, Georgia? (answer below)

Crude Oil is up $1.25 at $95.39
US Dollar is up at $102.82
Dow futures are down 154 points at 51,781

WEATHER:
Radar has a slow-moving frontal boundary working across the southern Midwest this morning, with thunderstorm activity noted across parts of MO and IL and then further south through KS and OK. Models have things staying on the stormy side for the next couple days as this system works through, with high pressure on the back side then causing a notable drop in temperatures into the end of the week and weekend. Things warm up again somewhat into next week, but a lot of the northern half of the Corn Belt looks to get their first frost of the season this weekend.

OTHER HEADLINES:
At the state level, corn harvest progress advanced 15% in IL to 51%, 14% in MO to 64%, and 13% in IN and MN to 34% and 25% respectively; MI gained just 2% on the week to 4% complete. For soybeans, MN, and WI each saw increases of 43% on the week to 68% and 54% complete, while SD was up 30% to 47%, and IA and ND were each up 26% to 31% and 60%.
Chinese customs data for the month of September showed soybean imports into the country at 11.88 MMTs, down a little more than 2% from the August figure and down nearly 8% from the same month last year. Data shows cumulative imports in 2026 now at 86.08 MMTs, but sources familiar caution that buying could slow into the end of the year due to weak animal feed demand and negative crush margins.
A Ukrainian farmers union said this week that corn exports in the 2026/27 season were unlikely to exceed 18-19 MMTs due to ongoing disruptions at Black Sea ports; the figure would be down from more than 22 MMTs in the previous season. The union added that monthly totals are capped at around 1.5 MMTs, while exports to this point in the season have reached roughly 2 MMTs. Meanwhile, wheat exports in the season are seen at just 11 MMTs, which would be down from more than 14 MMTs exported last year.
From late yesterday, the US EPA said on Tuesday that it would be reallocating 100% of the exempted biofuel volumes to other refiners, with the only question now a matter of whether the reallocations occur in a split between 2026 and 2027 or entirely in 2027. Notable is that the EPA still has not made announcements on SRE decisions for the current 2026 year, which were originally expected before the end of this month.
There seems to still be little if any progress being made in negotiations between the US and Iran, with President Trump indicating on an almost daily basis that the war is close to being over but then there being no evidence on the ground that this is actually the case. The latest comments indicate a decision regarding further military action is coming "soon" but there is little new this morning regarding the situation otherwise.
Similarly, Russia launched another air attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight, signaling that Trump's announced ceasefire last week is having little affect. Trump says he feels both sides are interested in finding an end to war but that differences remain and have been difficult to overcome.

EXPORT NEWS:
Private exporters reported sales of 470,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year.

Answer: Forrest Gump. “Mama always said, “Life was like a box of chocolates; you never know what you’re gonna get.”

Be careful!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: [email protected]
Image

10/13/2026

Tuesday, October 13, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: -0.25.
Beans: -4. Wheat: -3.
State Bank of Bement will be passing out Harvest Bags TOMORROW! 10/14 from 1:30-3:30pm in Bement
United Prairie will be serving lunch Friday, 10/16 from 11am-1pm in Pierson

Good evening!

Trivia: Who is the longest tenured employee with Topflight Grain Cooperative? (answer below)

Market Recap-
It was more of the same across Chicago ag futures markets on Tuesday, with the space closing mostly quietly lower in what continues to be choppy, directionless trade following last week's doozy of a WASDE update. The products saw the biggest downside moves today from a percentage standpoint, but overall feel and market sentiment was much the same as yesterday with spot corn and soybean futures barely mustering a more than 3 cent trading range the last hour+ of the day.

Corn Summary-
Traders are continuing to debate the USDA's production figures and subsequent gain in ending stocks in the corn market from last week, with there little new of note otherwise over the last couple days and harvest now just about in full swing. Farmer hedge selling has been overshadowed a bit by fund liquidation to this point, but we would imagine this increases as they begin to move out of beans and back into corn. Outside of the US, European corn futures rallied to new contract highs on Tuesday on more crop cuts in France, but the numbers didn't do anything to change overall sentiment in the market for the most part with the drought situation there this summer largely known.

Soybean Summary-
It was the oil that stole the show a bit in the soy complex on Tuesday, with futures seeing gains of more than a penny/lb through the first part of the morning session but then diving lower into the afternoon on what could've been buy the rumor, sell the fact type trading in regards to the EPA announcement. In other news, there were cash rumors that China was back in the market for new purchases but no evidence of such to this point, and meal futures also saw lower trade on the day though there wasn't a lot of reason given for the selling.

Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures trade quietly for a second straight day this week, finishing just barely in the red on what continues to be a lack of anything substantial out of the Black Sea and as cash offers in Europe continue to indicate that there remains an adequate amount of supply available. The higher trade in European corn futures also spilled into European wheat markets which could help US futures the rest of the week, but we imagine trade stays choppier than not amid the ongoing back and forth headlines regarding the situation in the Black Sea.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up around $0.70/bbl.

Weather Updates-
Though there's additional rains in the forecast for the Midwest the rest of the week this week, temperatures are getting most of the media attention, with record heat across the region today and yesterday expected to be replaced with what looks to be the first shot of winter-like air by the end of the week and weekend. Highs through MO, IL and IN look to drop some 30 degrees over the coming days, with lows Friday night into Saturday expected in the 30s.
Rainfall-wise, models today still see a frontal boundary producing 1-3" of precip by the end of the week through a fairly wide corridor from west-central TX north and east through MO and IL and into WI and the broader Great Lakes region. Exact locations and amounts will be variable, but the forecast generally has the larger rainfall totals further to the south in TX and OK.
The extended forecast from the EU model has the pattern staying blocked for the most part, with high pressure in the east and low pressure in the west keeping flow out of the southwest. This will allow to storms to work along the boundary in-between, keeping the midsection of the country active while both the East and West Coasts have drier biases.
The forecast continues to be quiet for the most part in South America, with rains and temperatures both near average throughout much of Argentina, while Brazil continues to see too much rainfall in the south and too little in the north but just the right amount throughout the central part of the country, which is where most of the ag production is located.

Answer: Rick Stone, Cisco Superintendent. 31 years!


Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: [email protected]
Image

10/13/2026

Tuesday, October 13, 2026
Morning Markets: Corn: +1.25.
Beans: -1.25. Wheat: +2.50.
State Bank of Bement will be passing out Harvest Bags TOMORROW! 10/14 from 1:30pm-3:30pm in Bement
United Prairie will be serving lunch Friday, 10/16 from 11am-1pm in Pierson

MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. While still more choppy/quiet than not, overnight ag trade has been mostly lower into Tuesday morning, with the beans and meal leading the down move and dragging the grains along for the ride while bean oil is the lone member of the bunch trading in the green. Inputs to this point in the morning are little changed from yesterday - traders are continuing to deal with the fallout from Friday's report, but broader focus and most of the newswire chatter to start this week has seemingly been on the ongoing global geopolitical issues, as well as Chinese demand and the prospects for El Niño in South America. It's a combination of these three things that will more likely than not drive the majority of CBOT ag futures pricing over the next several months. Corn futures to start Tuesday are again trading on either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower also.



Trivia: What river runs through Paris? (answer below)

Crude Oil is down $0.86 at $92.88
US Dollar is down at $102.19
Dow futures are up 438 points at 52,548

WEATHER:
A weak low pressure system and the associated cold front look to be the main weather features for the Midwest this week, with the models this morning still seeing fairly widespread rainfall chances across a lot of the central US between now and Friday. Totals are seen slightly less this morning than they were yesterday, but coverage has expanded a bit to cover more of MO/IL/IN in the central part of the Midwest.
This front will also cause a bit of a roller coaster ride in temperatures - a lot of the Midwest will see record or near record highs again today, but this heat will be briefly replaced by frost chances on the weekend. The cool doesn't look to last either though, as the models see highs into next week back above normal, though not quite as hot as what was seen this week.

OTHER HEADLINES:
A COFCO executive said at an annual conference on Tuesday that Chinese soybean imports during Q4 of this year were expected to average around 9.5 MMTs per month. From the US perspective, more important is the origin of those beans and not necessarily the total, with data as recent as August still showing Brazil accounting for the bulk of China's soy purchases. Of note, the source added that Chinese corn imports were only expected to reach 3.5 MMTs during the 2026/27 season.
In their weekly progress update, private South American consultancy AgRural said on Monday that recent rains in Mato Grosso and other parts of central Brazil had allowed for good planting progress to be made over the last week, with the gap in progress between this region and the southern region said to have meaningfully narrowed. The group sees total soybean planting progress at 15% complete vs 14% last year, while first crop corn planting is seen at 44% complete vs 45% a year ago.
Touched on it briefly on Monday, but the White House late last week completed its review of the EPA's biofuel reallocation plan, signaling some sort of announcement on the matter could be made in the near future. After exempting small refiners from more blending requirements than was initially expected, the EPA pledged to reallocate that volume to other larger refiners, but most in the industry are skeptical of whether or not this will actually happen due to precedent set during Trump's first term.
In livestock news, state researchers from China said this week that pork production was likely to reach another annual record by the end of the year, likely worsening an already poor economic situation as consumption rates have continued to fall. Chinese pork production totaled a record 59.38 million tons in 2025, while domestic consumption had already fallen more than 5% from the year prior.
The French Farm Ministry cut another almost million tons off its monthly corn production forecast this week, now estimating the crop at just 7.3 MMTs, confirming what is expected to be the smallest crop in decades as heatwaves and drought damaged crops. The group also slightly trimmed its soft wheat production forecast from 31.7 MMTs to 31.5.

EXPORT NEWS:
N/A

Answer: The Seine

Be careful!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: [email protected]
Image

A beautiful fall sunset looking west from the Topflight Grain Bement elevator!
10/13/2026

A beautiful fall sunset looking west from the Topflight Grain Bement elevator!

10/13/2026

Monday, October 12, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: +3.25.
Beans: -4.25. Wheat: +1.25.
State Bank of Bement will be passing out Harvest Bags Wednesday, 10/14 from 1:30-3:30pm in Bement
United Prairie will be serving lunch Friday, 10/16 from 11am-1pm in Pierson

Good evening!

Trivia: Who was the youngest U.S. President? (answer below)

Market Recap-
Monday ag trade was a mixed affair to get the week started, with new news largely limited amid it being a federal holiday in the US and as the dust continues to settle on Friday's October WASDE update. The report is going to linger in the background for the foreseeable future amid the bearish input to the corn market, but like we talked about this morning, the fundamental backdrop present at the CBOT today is made up of far more than just supply and demand in the US and that there wasn't a ton of downside follow-through today was at least encouraging.


Corn Summary-
Corn futures tried to claw back a portion of the losses seen to end the week last week on Friday, though they made a rather feeble effort amid the newfound bearishness on the balance sheet and as there was little present in terms of a reason for the market to work higher. The yield numbers, both at the state and national level, are going to get a lot of attention into November's crop report, but no matter how much they're talked about, they aren't going to change over the next four weeks. However, there's still a chance that China shows up to buy US corn, which could bring ending stocks down even if the production number stays elevated. There may be some more minor wiggling go on in November, but focus otherwise is going to shift to the demand side of the US balance sheet, as this now looks to have the biggest impact on carryout over the next several months.

Soybean Summary-
The soy complex started the week mixed on Monday, with the beans lower and the products both in the green on generally moderate volume and a lack of fresh new input. For all the bearishness seen in the grain markets late last week, the beans have held up surprisingly well as there was little if anything that really changed on the fundamental picture here and we would generally expect this to continue this week as many in the I-states should be on the tail end of bean harvest and getting more into corn harvest in the coming days. While quality continues to be a question, yield reports have been remarkably good and in large part have supported the USDA's record yield figure, it's just the question now of demand and whether or not China will keep to its pledge of securing 25 MMTs before the end of the year. If they do, ending stocks likely stay on the tighter side which should keep futures supported; but if they don't and the USDA finds reason to cut exports, ending stocks could quickly rebound to more comfortable levels once more is known regarding the crop in South America.

Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed near unchanged to start the week on Monday, with it having been another weekend of alleged progress in diplomacy that was immediately followed with reports of more attacks between Russia and Ukraine that indicate there is still little if any actual progress being made. Russia feels it has the upper hand militarily due to Ukraine having limited air defenses, and so long as this remains the case, we don't see Trump or anyone else reaching an agreement with Putin to halt the attacks. Putin wants to win the war, not reach an agreement with the west; it’s as simple as that. Other fundamentals in the wheat market have continued to be more second nature, with there still no sign of a lack of exportable supply in Europe and new crop supplies in the southern hemisphere likely available in another 6-8 weeks.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up around $1.30/bbl.

Weather Updates-
There's noticeably good model agreement on the Midwest weather forecast for the coming week, with a frontal system expected to bring thunderstorms/rainfall to the central part of the region Wednesday/Thursday, while things stay quiet for the most part otherwise. Rainfall totals this afternoon are seen ranging from 1-3" generally for an area from west TX to northern IL/IN, with the heavier totals expected to favor areas to the south.
Temperatures will stay warm across the Corn Belt for the first part of the week, but the frontal system looks to then also bring a cool-down in air temperatures with it, with much of the northern part of the area seeing its first expected frost risk of the season by the end of this week and weekend. Things warm up again into next week and the cooler air doesn't look to last long, but the first shot of chilly fall air looks to be on deck for the back end of this week.
The extended forecast into the end of the month favors a generally drier outlook, with things looking to turn drier again throughout much of the eastern US. The models are keeping chances at being wetter than normal throughout the Plains and central US, but there will be questions as to how far north and east these cut-off lows that are expected to be the source of this precip will be able to make it.
Temperature anomaly maps into the end of the month went back warmer over the weekend for the eastern half of the country, while the west was seen working cooler in the 10-15 day period as high pressure works back east and larger troughing sets up over the West Coast.
While more frontal and not necessarily monsoonal, models do have enough moisture in the forecast for the bulk of central Brazil to sustain planting activities and early season crop development over the next 10-15 days, though on the margin the south will continue to be too wet and the north too dry.

Answer: Theodore Roosevelt. Assumed office at 42 years old. JFK is the youngest elected at 43 years old.


Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: [email protected]
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Monticello, IL
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