08/01/2026
The million dollar rain.
I'd like to know who coined that phrase. It's been around a long time, and was frequently used on agricultural radio broadcasts on stations like WGN in Chicago, back when they had such broadcasts.
For those not familiar, it's used to describe a drought-breaker or other very timely rain that effectively saves a crop. We are in the midst of one of those right now- there's 4 inches in the gauge and it is still coming down. And it couldn't have come at a better time!
For both corn and soybeans, July and August are key times for pollination and grain fill. Corn is in the process or has just finished pollinating, soybeans will be setting pods this month. Both processes require water- to the tune of close to a quarter inch per day in hot weather.
In the conditions we've had in Southeast WI, it's been very dry, to the point some areas have suffered significant crop damage already. To put it in perspective- today's 4 plus inches plus 1.8 inches we were fortunate enough to get Monday morning are more than the combined rainfall from May 1 until July 27th! This week has been huge!
So how much money does a key rain really generate? Given the conditions we had going into this week, and with what we see now, the prospect for corn yield could easily have boosted corn yields 50 bushels per acre. If we assume those 50 bushels are worth $4 per bushel, that $200 more gross income per acre. 5000 acres worth of that sort of improvement gets us to the million dollar rain mark. Soybean math is similar.
Does this mean we will be awash in money this fall? That's doubtful. Given current markets and input pricing, it was going to take a really strong yield just to break even. But realistically, given prospects 10 days ago for a lot of southern WI, there were going to be some hard conversations between farmers and lenders this fall. This will make some of those a bit easier.
Last, it should be noted that those million dollar rains get noticed at the Chicago Board of Trade, and there's a lot of complex calculus and psychology that go into that... more than Facebook can handle!
In the meantime, we are enjoying puddles and a sense of calm and relaxation. Hopefully you do, too!