09/01/2026
🗓 02:00 9 Jan — 02:00 14 Jan 2026 • [120H] Rëen 📊🌧 Rain
Weermodel • Weather Model: ECMWF
🗣 [English follows the Afrikaans]
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Hierdie dek die volgende VYF dae se saamgestelde reënvoetspoor én gee (ongelukkig) ook 'n oorsig van basis-volumes.
Sal later vanaand 'n multi-weermodel-oorsig gee, maar gisteraand se STORMBARON™ deel eintlik drie belangrike punte:
1. Die ECMWF (HRES) is die wêreld se beste numeriese weermodel juis omdat dit die BOLUG besonders goed modelleer.
2. Dis nie net die ECMWF se numeriese model wat hierdie prent lewer nie (hier die prente links en middel) maar ook hul Kunsmatige Intelligensie-model (prent regs). Dis 'n baie ongemaklike "oudit", maar wel met die waarde van bietjie meer noordoos (help nie vir Mosambiek nie).
3. Hoekom wil mens die beste weermodel ignoreer of op dieselfde vlak plaas as die ander wat nie so goed is nie? Dis soos om 'n swakker kar in 'n hoër liga te probeer skuif net omdat dit vir mens mooier lyk.
Natuurlik HOOP én BID mens dat hierdie prent nie realiseer nie en stééds sal "OOS-scenario", maar dit help ook nie om 'n volstruis te wees en die uitsonderlike risiko van hierdie prent net weg te wens nie.
💬 Dus, alhoewel daar nie duidelike model-konsensus is oor die voetspoor-plasing van massa-water nie, is hierdie die prent van die weermodel wat meesal meer reg is as ander. Dis daarom moeilik om te "ignoreer".
⚠️ Daar mag wel 'n versagting verskyn soos die komende dae uitspeel (die intree vanaf die noordooste is reeds bietjie traer), maar hoeveel reën kan "jou plek" én groter streek hanteer en so versagting sal nie noodwendig orals wees nie.
→ 'n Versagting sal steeds plekke wat tans "erg" redelike uitgebreid in die saamgestelde 100-200+ mm reeks oor hierdie periode plaas (en meer mag na hierdie periode byvoeg).
🚩 Hierdie dek SLEGS die tydperk tot Woensdagoggend.
→ As hierdie modellering wel realiseer is daar beduidende verdere uitbreiding SUID langs die oostekant (d.w.s. na noordoostelike KZN, maar dit mag breër dek oor die oostelike helfte van KZN).
Reken daarom in dat ons met 'n meer uitgebreide episode werk vanaf Saterdag+ (met sagte intree al vanaand).
⚓️ Anker op die Weerdiens en let daarom op na hul waarskuwings én adviserings.
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● EN ●
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This covers the next FIVE days of accumulated rain and (unfortunately) also offers an overview of base volumes.
Will share a multi-model overview tonight today, but last night's STORMBARON™ actually shares three important points:
1. The ECMWF (HRES) is the world's best numerical weather model precisely because it models the UPPER AIR exceptionally well.
2. It's not just the ECMWF's numerical model that models this picture (here the pictures left and centre) but also their Artificial Intelligence model (pictured right). This adds a very uncomfortable "audit", but still with the value of a little more northeast (doesn't help Mozambique).
3. Why would you want to ignore the best weather model or put it on the same level as the others that aren't as good? It's like trying to move a more basic car into a higher league just because it looks nicer to you.
Of course we HOPE and PRAY that this picture does not happen and still follow the "EAST scenario", but it also does not help to be an ostrich and just wish away the serious risk of this picture.
💬 So, although there is no clear model consensus on the footprint placement of major water, this is the picture of the weather model that is mostly more correct than others. Hence it's difficult to "ignore".
⚠️ There may well be some softening as the coming days play out (the entry from the northeast is already a little slower), but how much rain can "your place" and the wider region handle and such softening will not necessarily be everywhere.
→ A softening will still place places that are currently "severe" quite extensively in the accumulated 100-200+ mm range over this period (and more may add after this period).
🚩 This ONLY covers the period until Wednesday morning.
→ If this modelling holds there is significant further expansion SOUTH along the east side (i.e. towards north-eastern KZN, but it may cover more extensively over the eastern half of KZN).
Hence, keep in mind that we may very well deal with a more extensive episode from Saturday+ (with a soft onset already tonight).
⚓️ Anchor on the Weather Service and pay attention to their warnings and advisories.
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00Z ECMWF
📋 Meteologix